Reshaping Supply Chains Newsletter – November 2025

November saw fast-moving geopolitical and regulatory shifts that directly affected supply chains. Temporary China–US export-control easing offered brief relief, but rare-earth tightness, EU customs changes, and semiconductor disruptions kept pressure high. A survey of European supply-chain leaders found that about 80 % of responding companies expect current supply-chain headwinds (geopolitics, tariffs, trade-policy uncertainty) to remain significant for the next one to two years.

Geopolitics, Global Trade Policy & Regulatory Shifts

November was marked by heightened tensions between Japan and China after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated that “If there are battleships and the use of force, no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation.” Beijing condemned the remark, accusing Japan of interfering in China’s internal affairs, while Tokyo insisted the statement was consistent with its long-standing policy. Chinese officials responded sharply, imposing economic coercive measures including travel restrictions, cancellations of official events, and tightened export controls. At the same time, President Trump appeared to break with previous U.S. policy by expressing support for China’s position that Taiwan is a breakaway territory that should ultimately be brought under Beijing’s control.

China eased and suspended some export controls (rare metals, dual-use items) following October negotiations with the United States. The temporary roll-backs and adjustments in early November reduced immediate supply-shock risk for electronics/EV supply chains, but left longer-term uncertainty.

Major legal hearings in the US about the scope of tariff powers and ongoing tariff policy created near-term uncertainty for importers (classification, duty planning) and prompted some firms to adjust sourcing and timing.

EU and China set up a “special channel” to secure export licences for rare-earth materials, to ease supply-chain strain after China’s export-control tightening earlier in 2025. This should help avoid immediate component shortages and keeps production lines running. 

Court and government interventions plus tensions between China and the Netherlands disrupted shipments of low-end automotive chips from Nexperia, forcing some carmakers to cut shifts and look for alternative sourcing.

The European Council announced that it has agreed to end duty-free treatment for imports worth under €150, arguing the current system creates unfair competition and environmental issues. A temporary transition measure is planned for as early as 2026, with a permanent framework to follow once the EU Customs Data Hub comes online, expected in 2028.

The EU plans a coordinated stockpiling and critical-minerals strategy to shield defence and strategic industries from supply-chain shocks. China still controls about 85-90% of global rare-earth refining and a commanding share of high-strength magnet production. 

UK launched a new UK Critical Minerals Strategy to reduce foreign dependence, targeting 10% domestic supply + 20% recycling by 2035; also to stockpile critical minerals and expand domestic extraction/processing. 

Global supplies of yttrium (and other rare earths) are running dangerously low due to export restrictions and market tightness, pressuring aerospace, defence and high-tech supply chains. Yttrium is used in various high-tech and defence-critical applications (magnets, electronics, hard alloys). Shortages or price surges can delay or raise costs for manufacturing of aerospace parts, radar and sensor systems, missile guidance, etc.

The Houthis announced in a letter that they have halted Red Sea and anti-Israel attacks, but warned they will immediately resume striking Israel and blocking shipping if the Gaza ceasefire collapses.

Labor Actions, Political Unrest & Strikes

Simultaneous strikes in Portugal and Belgium are adding new pressure to Europe’s already strained port system. In Chile, an industrial action limited access to the Puerto Angamos’ terminals and affected copper export schedules and added port waiting time in the region. In Mexico, nationwide trucker and farmer blockades snarled highway access to ports and US border crossing. 

Coordinated strikes and protests were held at warehouses in over 30 countries (notably Germany) went on a ‘Make Amazon Pay’ strike on Black Friday, aiming to slow fulfilment peak-season throughput and added contingency costs for e-commerce flows.

One day before the results of a contested election were released, a group of army officers staged a coup in Guinea-Bissau. The seizure of power and closure of land/sea/air borders suspended clearance and port operations, immediately blocking flows in that small but strategic gateway. 

The government of Tanzania cracked down violently on post-election unrest. The opposition contested the result and process as the main opposition party was not allowed to participate and its leader was arrested for treason in April. 

Severe Climate Events & Natural Disasters

Severe flooding and typhoons in central Vietnam in November killed more than a hundred. Heavy rain and landslides disrupted road links, delayed and destroyed harvest of coffee, and regional container movements.

Cyclonic rains in Indonesia (Sumatra) caused severe floods and landslides in Indonesia (Sumatra), killing more than 300 people. The climate disaster caused large-scale damage, and cut roads and bridges created local distribution bottlenecks and diverted cargo flows.

Sector-Specific Disruptions

Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare

A November 2025 analysis warns that because some major drugmakers (in response to pressure from US price controls) are expanding factories in the US and prioritising the US market, they may delay or forgo new-drug launches in Europe. That could slow access to innovative therapies in European markets, weakening regional supply availability. 

The quarterly report for Germany’s chemical-pharmaceutical sector states that production, prices and exports are down, and capacity utilisation is well below profitability thresholds. Reduced output from suppliers may lead to fewer available active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) or finished medicines — amplifying existing shortages or reducing buffer stocks.

Although some seasonal fears (e.g. for antibiotics) have been allayed recently, the underlying structural issue remains: a recent audit found the EU still lacks robust, harmonised systems to prevent drug shortages.

Defence and strategic-materials sector

The defence and strategic-materials sectors face a structural supply-chain risk in late 2025: rare-earth shortages, dependence on refining dominated by China, semiconductor/electronics bottlenecks — all amid rising geopolitical pressure to “de-risk” supply. Expect rising input costs, longer lead times, and a strong push by governments/companies to diversify, stockpile or re-shore critical supply-chain components.

Automotive & Machinery

A major new study warns that the U.S. auto sector’s heavy reliance on imported parts leaves it vulnerable to cost swings and geopolitical shocks, prompting renewed efforts to reshore production and rebuild domestic capabilities. It identifies critical gaps across components—from EV batteries and motors to electronics, plastics, engines, and chassis systems—highlighting how labor shortages, limited automation, and a weak machinery supply base are constraining competitiveness. The report concludes that strengthening U.S. manufacturing will require coordinated policy support and industry collaboration to build advanced capabilities in semiconductors, EV systems, and software-driven vehicle design, with experts calling it a roadmap for restoring U.S. leadership in global automotive supply chains.

Electronics, Technology & AI Hardware

Electronics supply chains are worsening as tariff uncertainty and reduced Asian shipments have cut U.S. imports by as much as 30%, creating acute shortages of semiconductors and circuit boards. Production lines that rely on Chinese components are pausing while firms race to secure alternative suppliers. As a result, consumer electronics prices are rising 10–15%, driven by higher freight costs and delivery delays that are pressuring margins across the sector.

Transportation & Logistics Conditions

November sees continued global overcapacity on major ocean lanes, keeping rates soft despite growing port congestion, equipment shortages, and blank sailings—especially in Europe and on India–U.S. routes—while air freight tightens across Asia as strong e-commerce and tech demand, plus reduced freighter capacity, push rates up and force earlier booking.

After the fatal UPS MD-11 crash in Louisville on November 4 prompted regulators and carriers to ground and inspect MD-11 fleets across UPS, FedEx, and others, a significant share of wide-body freighter capacity was removed just before the holiday peak.

US transportation and logistics are severely strained in November by trade-policy-driven supply-chain disruptions, causing steep freight-volume drops, higher costs, widespread delays, and sector-wide price hikes that some say make the country increasingly unattractive for investment.

Conclusion

By month’s end, supply chains faced tighter resources, more policy-driven disruption, and rising costs. Limited relief from suspended controls or resolved strikes did not offset structural risks. Companies enter winter needing stronger diversification and faster response plans as trade rules, security tensions, and climate shocks continue to reshape global operations.