Reshaping Supply Chains Newsletter – October 2025

October 2025 underscored how volatile the global supply-chain landscape has become, as geopolitical flashpoints and environmental shocks converged. Global tensions deepened as trade, energy, and supply-chain fragmentation accelerated, with governments expanding state intervention, protectionist policies, and industrial control, while economic nationalism, sanctions, and climate-related disruptions underscored a volatile shift toward securitised globalisation.

• Iran-backed Houthi forces attacked commercial shipping throughout October, including a missile strike on a Dutch-flagged vessel on October 2. This was the most serious Houthis attack in months in the Gulf of Aden, where they have sunk four ships since November 2023. The attack was tied to Israeli ground offensive targeting Gaza. Additionally, the Houthis threatened to “employ all means and instruments available” to attack American oil companies. 

• On October 28–29, a sanctioned Russian tanker ran aground in the Suez Canal, temporarily halting traffic and creating short-term congestion. While cleared within hours, the incident reinforced reliability concerns and could push more shippers to bypass Suez altogether.

• Mid-October strikes by lashers and pilots at Rotterdam and Antwerp curtailed operations for 48 hours and triggered rolling slowdowns. The strikes resulted in  delays, yard congestion, and longer drayage times disrupted inland distribution across northern Europe.

• The severe tropical storm Fengshen (Ramil) struck the Philippines and southern China in mid-October, forcing temporary closures of Hainan and nearby ports. Short-term port shutdowns and inland-transport disruption delayed container flows through East Asia.

• The Panama Canal Authority reported strong FY 2025 results, yet analysts flagged vulnerability to drought or operational shocks. While fully operational, lingering water-level and congestion concerns keep contingency planning on the agenda.

• Pakistan and the US-based U.S. Strategic Metals (USSM) signed a framework deal worth about US $500 million for cooperation in critical minerals, including antimony, copper concentrate and rare-earth elements like neodymium and praseodymium. Pakistan dispatched its first shipment to the US under this deal in October 2025. 

• The European Commission adopted its CBAM “Omnibus” simplification package in late October, clarifying reporting requirements before the full 2026 rollout. Importers of carbon-intensive goods — steel, cement, fertilizers, and electricity-heavy inputs — now face new disclosure duties and higher landed costs.

• Between October 22–24, the U.S. OFAC sanctioned major Russian oil producers (Rosneft, Lukoil), while the EU approved its 19th package including the first blanket ban on Russian LNG imports starting Jan 2027, plus a slew of measures targeting “shadow fleet” vessels, key banks, crypto platforms and diplomats’ movements. In the meantime, the OPEC+ has planned a modest increase of output, which is set to prevent more energy-price volatility. 

• A magnitude 6.1 earthquake struck western Turkey’s Balikesir province on October 27, collapsing several buildings in Sindirgi but causing no immediate casualties, according to officials.

The trade dispute and tensions continued to rise between the US and China throughout the month as both sides seem to push for further decoupling. But both sides have been feeling the effects of escalating measures and at the APEC meeting in South Korea on October 30th announced temporarily deescalating measures.  

• On October 9, Beijing broadened export-licensing requirements on additional rare-earth elements and related technologies, citing national security concerns. This sent shockwaves throughout the world as China is largely the predominant supplier of most rare-earth elements and forced countries to reassess their supply chain options. It is especially threatening for EV, semiconductor, and defense manufacturers.

• The day after, Trump announced he would impose a 100% tariff on Chinese imports effective November 1 in reaction to China’s export restrictions; he also announced new U.S. export controls on critical software.

• On the same day, China’s Ministry of Transport of the People’s Republic of China declared “special port service fees” on vessels owned, operated and built by the US docking in Chinese ports. 

• The port fees were implemented on October 14, in direct parallel to the U.S. fee regime planned for Chinese-linked ships. 

• The U.S. government has begun acquiring equity stakes in strategic firms, such as Intel Corporation, MP Materials Corp, Lithium Americas Corp, as part of a new industrial-policy push aimed at securing domestic supply chains for semiconductors and critical minerals. This marks a significant shift in how the U.S. economy is operating: rather than simply providing subsidies or regulation, the state is becoming a direct investor and hence can more explicitly influence winners and losers in key markets, similar to models historically associated with China.

• Reuters reported on October 22 that Washington is weighing restrictions on products made with U.S.-origin software or tools, even if produced abroad. The potential new export-license obligations for electronics, aerospace, and industrial machinery could slow cross-border shipments and force production relocation.

• Trump and Xi met in Busan (South Korea) and publicly agreed to a 12-month suspension of the port fees from both sides, alongside tariff adjustments (US tariffs on Chinese goods were lowered by 10%) and a pause in certain export-control actions, signalling a temporary de-escalation.

Elections results of the month: 

• Incumbent President Paul Biya re-elected with ~53.7% of the vote on October 12, which led to protests and repressive actions. 

• Northern Cyprus President Tufan Erhürman was elected with 62.8% of the vote on October 19. 

• Incumbent President Alassane Ouattara was re-elected with 90% of the vote in the Ivory Coast on October 25. 

• Argentinian President Javier Milei’s party (La Libertad Avanza) won the mid-term elections with 41% of the vote gaining 13 of 24 Senate seats and 64 of the 127 lower-house seats that were contested.

• Left-winger Catherine Connolly was elected President in Ireland on October 24, winning 63 % of the vote.

• In Japan, the (LDP) held its leadership election, selecting Sanae Takaichi, who was elected as Japan’s first female Prime Minister on October 21.

• In the Netherlands, the centrist liberal party D66, led by Rob Jetten, won the national election by two seats in front of Geert Wilders’ Party for Freedom, which led the previous government. As the Party for Freedom is unlikely to be able to form a coalition,  Rob Jetten is set to become the new Prime Minister of the Netherlands.